Buckhannon, WV; December 22nd, 2025
As Christmas Day approaches, many residents across Upshur County have seen forecasts suggesting temperatures well above seasonal norms, with some outside voices even floating highs into the mid to upper 60s; while such numbers understandably catch attention, a closer look at the atmospheric setup shows why official forecasts, and our own analysis, remain more cautious.
This is not a matter of lacking data; in fact, it is quite the opposite. National models, regional forecasts, oceanic indicators, and local short-range guidance all agree on the general pattern. The uncertainty lies in the details, and in West Virginia, details matter more than almost anywhere else in the eastern United States.
The Big Picture: A Mild Pattern with an Active Storm Track
At the national scale, the pattern leading into Christmas Day remains active, with a broad trough over the western United States and a persistent southerly flow across the central and eastern portions of the country. This setup favors warmer air being transported northward ahead of approaching systems, which is why much of the eastern U.S. is expecting above-average temperatures for late December.
Oceanic conditions support this pattern as well. Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic remain anomalously warm, providing ample moisture and reinforcing the tendency for storm systems to track northeastward rather than allowing Arctic air to press southward unimpeded. These broader signals help explain why a truly cold Christmas appears unlikely.
However, broad warmth does not automatically translate to unusually high temperatures at the surface, especially in the Appalachian interior.
What the Local Forecasts Are Actually Saying
The National Weather Service forecast for the Buckhannon area currently calls for a Christmas Day high near 60 degrees, accompanied by widespread rainfall and a very high probability of precipitation. Rain chances near or above 80 to 90% are not a minor detail; they are central to the temperature forecast.
Similarly, the NWS Charleston, West Virginia Forecast Discussion emphasizes the passage of a warm front across the region on Christmas Day, bringing periods of rain and cloud cover rather than a clear, well-mixed warm sector. The discussion language is careful, pointing toward mild conditions, but not aggressively warm ones.
This distinction matters. In wintertime Appalachia, the warmest days often occur not during steady rain, but during brief breaks behind a warm front when clouds thin and low-level winds mix warmer air down to the surface. When rain is persistent, the atmosphere tends to remain more stable, limiting how warm surface temperatures can climb.
Why “Mid to Upper 60s” Is a Harder Sell for Upshur County
Some forecasts circulating online suggest highs as warm as 65 to 67 degrees. While such values are not impossible, they require several things to go exactly right:
First, the warm front must pass early enough in the day to allow several hours of warm air to fully establish itself near the surface.
Second, rainfall would need to become lighter or more intermittent during the warmest part of the day, allowing some degree of mixing.
Third, low-level winds would need to align favorably to overcome terrain effects that often trap cooler air in valleys and hollows.
At present, neither the GFS MOS nor the NAM MOS guidance for nearby stations such as Clarksburg and Elkins strongly supports that combination. Both sets of guidance show temperatures rising into the 50s and possibly touching 60, but they also show continued cloud cover and precipitation through much of the day.
In short, the atmosphere appears willing to deliver mild weather, but not necessarily exceptional warmth.
Why Confidence Is Lower Than It Was Earlier
A common question has been why forecast confidence seemed higher over the weekend than it does now, despite being closer to Christmas. The answer lies in resolution.
Earlier forecasts often look cleaner because models are handling large-scale features. As the event approaches, models begin resolving smaller-scale processes, such as rainfall intensity, frontal timing, and boundary-layer stability. These finer details introduce variability, especially in complex terrain like Upshur County.
This is why confidence does not simply increase in a straight line as time passes. When a forecast hinges on whether a warm front passes at 9 a.m. versus noon, or whether rain tapers briefly midday or remains steady, confidence naturally narrows rather than broadens.
Our Christmas Day Forecast for Upshur County
Taking all available information into account, including national patterns, oceanic influences, local model guidance, and official NWS discussions, our forecast for Christmas Day in Upshur County is as follows:
Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees for most locations, with cooler readings possible in higher elevations and sheltered valleys.
Rain is likely for much of the day, with precipitation chances ranging from 80 to 90 percent. Rainfall may be moderate at times, and cloud cover is expected to be extensive.
A brief warmer outcome, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s, cannot be ruled out entirely, particularly if the warm front passes earlier than currently expected; however, this scenario is considered less likely at this time.
Confidence Assessment
Based on current data, we assign the following confidence levels:
We’re approximately 75 to 85% confident that Christmas Day highs will fall between 52 and 58 degrees, reflecting a mild but damp day.
We have 15 to 25% confidence that temperatures briefly rise into the low to mid 60s, somewhere in the county, should timing and rainfall align favorably.
And we’re keeping a low confidence, roughly 10 to 20%, that persistent rain and terrain effects hold temperatures closer to the 40s, at this present time.
Bottom Line for Readers
For those planning Christmas travel, outdoor gatherings, or simply wondering what kind of day lies ahead, the message is straightforward. Christmas Day in Upshur County looks mild by December standards, but likely wet, cloudy, and lacking the sunshine needed to push temperatures toward record territory.
In Appalachian weather, warmth often comes with tradeoffs; this year, that tradeoff appears to be rain rather than cold.
Weather forecasting is based on the best available data, pattern recognition, and historical behavior of the atmosphere, but is hardly ever absolute; small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing can shift local conditions, especially in complex terrain. Forecasts describe what is most likely to happen, not what is guaranteed to happen, and conditions can always evolve faster or slower than expected.
Sources
Primary First-Hand Sources
- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV Forecast Discussion
- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Point Forecast for Buckhannon, West Virginia
- NOAA Model Output Statistics (GFS and NAM)
Secondary Attribution-Based Sources
- Plymouth State Weather Center model displays
- NOAA Oceanic and Sea Surface Temperature analyses
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