Week of December 22nd – December 29th, 2025

NEW ENGLAND

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine

Overall Pattern

New England remains under an active, fast-moving winter pattern, with no sustained Arctic lock-in but multiple opportunities for cold air to rotate in behind passing systems. The region sits close enough to the polar jet to experience periodic cold shots, but frequent Atlantic influence keeps temperatures fluctuating.

Temperature Ranges

• Coastal Southern New England: Upper 30s to upper 40s
• Interior & Northern New England: Upper 20s to low 40s
• Cold snaps briefly dip below these ranges behind fronts

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–60% through the week
• Type:
– Coastal areas: mostly rain, occasional mix
– Interior & higher terrain: snow or rain/snow mix
• Snow accumulations favored in mountainous areas, especially VT and interior ME

Key Notes

This is not a locked-in cold week, but it is winter-capable. Small storm track shifts will matter greatly. Coastal warmth often undercuts interior cold.

NORTHEAST INTERIOR

Vermont (interior), Northern & Central Maine

Overall Pattern

This region stays closer to sustained cold sources than the coast. While warm intrusions do reach the area, they tend to be shorter-lived. Snow chances remain higher here than along the coast.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 20s to mid 30s
• Overnight lows: Teens to mid 20s

Precipitation

• Chance: 35–55%
• Type: Snow favored, occasional mix during warmer intrusions

Key Notes

This region has the highest confidence for wintry outcomes in New England this week, especially during the second half of storm systems.

MID-ATLANTIC

Pennsylvania, Virginia

Overall Pattern

The Mid-Atlantic sits squarely in a transition zone. Warm air pushes north ahead of systems, while cooler air drains south behind them. No prolonged cold lock, but repeated frontal passages create swings.

Temperature Ranges

• Eastern & Southern areas: Upper 40s to upper 50s
• Interior & higher terrain: Upper 30s to low 50s

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–65%
• Type:
– Rain dominant
– Snow or mix possible in higher elevations, especially late in systems

Key Notes

Snow potential exists, but mainly dependent on timing. Warm sectors often arrive first, pushing precipitation toward rain before colder air follows.

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

West Virginia, Eastern Kentucky

Overall Pattern

A textbook Appalachian winter setup: temperature swings, elevation-driven outcomes, and frequent moisture availability. Cold air arrives but struggles to hold without reinforcement.

Temperature Ranges

• Valleys & lowlands: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Higher elevations: Mid 30s to mid 40s

Precipitation

• Chance: 45–65%
• Type:
– Valleys: rain
– Ridges & high terrain: snow or mixed precipitation

Key Notes

Cold air is nearby but not dominant. Expect sharp contrasts over short distances. Elevation will decide outcomes more than latitude.

CAROLINAS

North Carolina, South Carolina

Overall Pattern

The Carolinas remain on the warm side of most systems, with brief cool-downs behind fronts. True winter air rarely penetrates deeply or for long.

Temperature Ranges

• Coastal & Piedmont: Upper 50s to mid 60s
• Western NC mountains: Upper 30s to upper 40s

Precipitation

• Chance: 35–55%
• Type: Mostly rain; mountain snow possible at higher elevations

Key Notes

Winter weather is terrain-dependent. Lowlands see mostly rain, while mountains remain the only reliable snow zone.

SOUTHEAST CORE

Tennessee, Georgia

Overall Pattern

A predominantly mild pattern with frontal interruptions. Cold air weakens quickly as it moves south, limiting winter impacts.

Temperature Ranges

• Tennessee: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Georgia: Mid 50s to mid 60s

Precipitation

• Chance: 35–50%
• Type: Rain

Key Notes

Brief cool shots possible, but winter weather is unlikely outside of extreme elevation. This eastern block of the country is defined by variability, not dominance. Cold air is present, but warm air frequently reasserts itself. Snow potential exists mainly where terrain and timing align.

DEEP SOUTH

Alabama, Mississippi

Overall Pattern

The Deep South remains on the warm and moisture-rich side of the jet stream for much of the week. Cold air intrusions do occur, but they are typically shallow and short-lived, retreating quickly once high pressure shifts east. The Gulf of Mexico remains a steady moisture source, keeping precipitation chances active.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 50s to upper 60s
• Overnight lows: Upper 30s to upper 40s
• Brief cooler periods possible immediately behind frontal passages

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–60%
• Type: Rain
• Heavier rainfall possible at times depending on frontal timing and moisture return

Key Notes

This is not a winter-dominated week. Cold air does make appearances, but it lacks staying power. Any wintry precipitation would be highly isolated and unlikely outside of anomalous setups.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

Central & Southern Florida

Overall Pattern

Florida continues its classic winter rhythm: frontal passages bring brief cool-downs, followed by rapid moderation. With no sustained cold air source nearby, temperatures rebound quickly between systems.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Mid 60s to mid 70s
• Overnight lows: Mid 40s to mid 50s, occasionally cooler just behind fronts

Precipitation

• Chance: 25–45%
• Type: Rain, mainly with frontal boundaries

Key Notes

Cooler air masses are temporary. No prolonged cold or winter weather concerns are indicated. Rain chances remain tied directly to frontal timing.

GULF COAST

Louisiana, Texas (coastal and central regions)

Overall Pattern

The Gulf Coast sits under a front-driven weather regime, where warm, moist air frequently returns ahead of systems. Cold fronts do push through, but the warm Gulf waters quickly reload the atmosphere.

Temperature Ranges

• Coastal areas: Lower 60s to low 70s
• Inland areas: Mid 50s to upper 60s
• Cooler nights briefly follow frontal passages

Precipitation

• Chance: 45–65%
• Type: Rain
• Locally heavier rainfall possible when moisture aligns with stronger systems

Key Notes

This region remains rain-prone, not winter-prone. Cold air modifies rapidly as it moves south, limiting winter impacts.

MID-SOUTH / LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

Arkansas, Missouri

Overall Pattern

This is a true battleground region for the week. Cold air from the north and warm air from the south frequently clash here, making this one of the most sensitive areas to storm track and timing.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Overnight lows: Upper 20s to upper 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–60%
• Type:
– Rain most common
– Rain/snow mix possible during colder windows
– Snow possible mainly north and late in systems

Key Notes

This region has higher variability than areas farther south. A small shift in storm timing could change precipitation type, but confidence in widespread winter impacts remains moderate to low.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

Oklahoma, North & Central Texas

Overall Pattern

The Southern Plains experience stronger frontal contrasts than the Gulf Coast. Oklahoma, in particular, remains more exposed to meaningful cold air intrusions, while Texas modifies more quickly.

Temperature Ranges

• Oklahoma: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Texas: Mid 50s to upper 60s

Precipitation

• Chance: 30–55%
• Type: Rain dominant; brief mix possible in Oklahoma during colder pushes

Key Notes

Winter weather chances increase moving northward. Texas largely avoids wintry impacts, while Oklahoma remains on the edge during stronger cold fronts.

Across the southern half of the country, warmth and moisture dominate, with cold air acting more as a temporary disruptor than a controlling force. The Mid-South remains the most sensitive region, while the Deep South and Gulf Coast lean decisively toward rain and mild temperatures.

OHIO VALLEY

Ohio, Indiana

Overall Pattern

The Ohio Valley remains a classic transition corridor this week, frequently positioned near frontal boundaries. Warm air surges north ahead of systems, followed by cooler air filtering in behind them. The pattern favors variability rather than persistence in any one air mass.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Overnight lows: Upper 20s to upper 30s
• Brief colder windows possible after frontal passages

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–60%
• Type:
– Rain most common
– Rain changing to snow possible late in systems
– Accumulating snow favors northern portions and colder timing

Key Notes

This is a timing-sensitive week. Several systems may pass through, but whether precipitation falls as rain or snow will depend on how quickly colder air arrives behind each front. Confidence increases closer to each event.

GREAT LAKES

Michigan, Wisconsin

Overall Pattern

The Great Lakes region remains one of the more winter-favored zones nationally. Colder air has a better chance of lingering here compared to areas farther south, and the region sits closer to the main storm track.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 20s to low 40s
• Overnight lows: Teens to upper 20s

Precipitation

• Chance: 45–65%
• Type: Snow more common than rain
• Lake-enhanced snow possible when wind direction aligns

Key Notes

Snow chances are higher and more consistent here than in the Ohio Valley. While not every system produces heavy snow, the overall environment is supportive of repeated winter impacts, especially in favored lake belts.

UPPER MIDWEST

Minnesota, Iowa

Overall Pattern

The Upper Midwest stays closer to entrenched cold air, allowing winter conditions to hold more consistently. Systems moving through this region encounter colder surface temperatures, increasing snow potential.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper teens to low 30s
• Overnight lows: Single digits to upper teens

Precipitation

• Chance: 35–55%
• Type: Snow favored
• Snow accumulations possible with passing systems

Key Notes

Compared to regions farther south, the Upper Midwest has fewer mixed-precipitation issues. When systems arrive, snow is the dominant outcome, though amounts will vary by track and speed.

NORTHERN PLAINS

North Dakota, South Dakota

Overall Pattern

The Northern Plains remain firmly within a winter-dominated regime. Cold air is well established, and systems passing through often interact with deep, dry continental air.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Single digits to upper 20s
• Overnight lows: Below zero to low teens

Precipitation

• Chance: 25–45%
• Type: Snow
• Blowing snow possible when winds increase

Key Notes

This region carries the highest confidence in sustained winter conditions. Even modest snowfall can lead to travel impacts due to wind and cold temperatures. The main uncertainty lies in storm strength rather than precipitation type.

The central and northern tier of the country increasingly transitions from variability to winter dominance as you move north. The Ohio Valley remains highly sensitive to timing, while the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northern Plains maintain stronger and more consistent winter signals.

Cold air is real here.
The question becomes how each system interacts with it, not whether it exists.

CENTRAL PLAINS

Nebraska, Kansas

Overall Pattern

The Central Plains sit in a high-gradient zone this week, where relatively small shifts in the jet stream and surface boundaries can produce large changes in sensible weather. Cold air is readily available to the north, while warmer air periodically surges in from the south.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Upper 30s to low 50s
• Overnight lows: Upper teens to low 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 30–55%
• Type:
– Rain or rain/snow mix most likely
– Snow possible during colder windows, especially north

Key Notes

Forecast confidence here remains moderate at best. The region will experience sharp temperature contrasts over short distances, and precipitation type will be highly dependent on storm track and timing.

ROCKIES

Colorado, Wyoming

Overall Pattern

The Rockies remain under a mountain-driven winter regime, where elevation plays the dominant role. Upper-level disturbances continue to move through, interacting with terrain to produce snow.

Temperature Ranges

• Valleys and Front Range: Upper 20s to low 40s
• Mountains: Teens to upper 20s

Precipitation

• Chance: 40–65%
• Type:
– Snow in the mountains
– Rain or snow in lower elevations depending on downslope vs upslope flow

Key Notes

Mountain snow remains the most reliable winter signal in this region. Front Range impacts hinge on upslope timing; downslope periods can temporarily boost temperatures and reduce precipitation.

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST

Utah, Idaho

Overall Pattern

An active but not extreme winter pattern continues across the Intermountain West. Shortwaves passing through the broader western trough support periodic precipitation, especially over higher terrain.

Temperature Ranges

• Valleys: Upper 30s to upper 40s
• Mountains: 20s to mid 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 35–60%
• Type:
– Snow in mountains
– Rain or rain/snow mix in valleys

Key Notes

Snowfall is terrain-focused. Valley locations may see precipitation without meaningful accumulation, while higher elevations continue to benefit from colder, more supportive profiles.

DESERT SOUTHWEST

Arizona, New Mexico

Overall Pattern

The Desert Southwest remains on the drier side of the western pattern, with only occasional disturbances strong enough to produce precipitation. Cooler air masses pass through without prolonged cold.

Temperature Ranges

• Desert lowlands: Upper 50s to upper 60s
• Higher terrain: 30s to 40s

Precipitation

• Chance: 15–35%
• Type:
– Rain in deserts
– Snow confined to higher elevations of northern AZ and NM

Key Notes

This region avoids widespread winter impacts. When precipitation occurs, it is typically light and elevation-dependent.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Oregon, Washington

Overall Pattern

The Pacific Northwest remains under a persistent onshore flow, favoring repeated precipitation events. The region stays active, with snow levels fluctuating based on each incoming system.

Temperature Ranges

• Lowlands: Upper 30s to upper 40s
• Mountains and passes: 20s to low 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 50–70%
• Type:
– Rain in lowlands
– Snow in higher elevations and mountain passes

Key Notes

Travel impacts remain most likely in mountain passes. Snow levels may fluctuate, but colder systems will periodically lower them enough to impact pass travel.

PACIFIC SOUTHWEST

California, Nevada

Overall Pattern

The Pacific Southwest continues to experience intermittent storm opportunities, with the strongest impacts focused on the Sierra Nevada. Valley locations are more sensitive to storm strength and trajectory.

Temperature Ranges

• California valleys: Upper 40s to mid 50s
• Nevada basins: Upper 30s to mid 40s
• Sierra Nevada: 20s to 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 30–55%
• Type:
– Rain in valleys
– Snow in the Sierra and higher elevations of Nevada

Key Notes

Sierra snow remains the primary winter story. Valley rain dominates unless colder systems dig far enough south and inland.

The western half of the country continues to show a terrain-controlled winter pattern. Mountains consistently see snow, while valleys and deserts experience more variability. No widespread, extreme cold signal dominates, but winter remains active where elevation and storm timing align.

ALASKA

Interior, Southcentral, and Coastal Alaska

Overall Pattern

Alaska remains in a fully winter-dominated regime, with cold air well established across the interior and periodic storm systems influencing coastal and southern regions. The polar jet remains active, and the state continues to act as a key cold reservoir for the Northern Hemisphere, even when that cold does not fully discharge southward.

Temperature Ranges

• Interior Alaska: Below zero to teens
• Southcentral Alaska: Single digits to upper 20s
• Coastal areas: Teens to low 30s

Precipitation

• Chance: 30–55% depending on region
• Type:
– Snow dominant inland
– Snow and occasional mixed precipitation near the coast

Key Notes

Winter impacts are routine rather than exceptional. The main concerns remain snow, visibility, and travel disruptions, particularly during stronger systems or wind events. While Alaska holds significant cold air, current patterns suggest limited direct Arctic discharge into the Lower 48 this week.

HAWAII

All Major Hawaiian Islands

Overall Pattern

Hawaii remains in a trade-wind-driven winter pattern, with periodic enhancements in moisture leading to increased shower activity, especially on windward slopes. No extreme pattern shifts are indicated.

Temperature Ranges

• Daytime highs: Mid 70s to low 80s
• Overnight lows: Mid 60s to low 70s

Precipitation

• Chance: 30–50%
• Type: Rain showers, primarily windward and mountainous areas

Key Notes

This is a typical Hawaiian winter setup. Wetter periods rotate through, but no prolonged or island-wide severe weather signals are present at this time.

NATIONAL WEEKLY SUMMARY

What the Country Looks Like as a Whole

This is not a coast-to-coast Arctic outbreak week.
It is also not a nationwide warm pattern.

Instead, the United States sits in a highly active, boundary-driven winter regime, where:

• Cold air exists and matters, especially north
• Warm air repeatedly pushes back from the south
• Storm systems remain progressive
• Elevation and timing determine outcomes

Temperature Overview

• Northern Plains / Upper Midwest: Cold-dominant, winter locked
• Great Lakes: Winter-favored with frequent snow chances
• Ohio Valley / Mid-South: Highly variable, timing-sensitive
• Southeast / Gulf Coast: Mild overall with frontal cool-downs
• Western Mountains: Snow continues where elevation supports it
• West Coast Valleys & Deserts: More rain than snow, moderate temperatures

Precipitation Overview

• Rain-dominant: Southeast, Gulf Coast, much of the Mid-Atlantic
• Snow-dominant: Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, higher elevations nationwide
• Mixed-risk zones: Ohio Valley, Mid-South, interior Northeast

Confidence Assessment

At this range, confidence is moderate for broad regional trends and low to moderate for specific outcomes tied to individual systems.

That matters.

As an outlet that prioritizes accuracy over excitement, the correct call this week is to emphasize patterns, not promises.

• Warm intrusions are plausible
• Cold snaps are real
• Sharp swings remain likely
• Local outcomes will depend on timing more than averages

65%–75%

Here’s what that means in plain terms:

• 65–75% confidence in the broad regional patterns
  (who’s generally colder, who’s milder, where snow vs rain is favored)
• 45–55% confidence in specific precipitation types in transition zones
  (Ohio Valley, Mid-South, Appalachians, interior Northeast)
• 30–40% confidence in exact timing or strength of individual systems
  (because small shifts still flip outcomes)

This week rewards patience and precision, not headline chasing. The atmosphere is active, but not locked into extremes. Winter is present, but unevenly distributed.

We’ll tighten the picture as systems enter the shorter-range window. Until then, this outlook reflects what the data can actually support — no more, no less.

Weather forecasting is based on the best available data, pattern recognition, and historical behavior of the atmosphere, but is hardly ever absolute; small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing can shift local conditions, especially in complex terrain. Forecasts describe what is most likely to happen, not what is guaranteed to happen, and conditions can always evolve faster or slower than expected.