Manufacturing Indexes Split as ISM Shows Contraction and S&P Global Reports Growth

Verified National Economic Report — First-Hand Sources Only
Appalachian Post — December 1, 2025

U.S. manufacturing delivered mixed signals in November as two major first-hand economic surveys reported conflicting results. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said factory activity contracted for a ninth straight month, while S&P Global reported continued expansion at a slower pace. No federal agency has issued any statement disputing either set of results.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October, marking another month below the 50% threshold that indicates contraction. According to the ISM release, new orders, employment, and backlogs all declined, while production moved into modest growth. The ISM reported that approximately 58% of manufacturing GDP is in contraction, with 39% in what it classifies as “strong contraction.” Industries reporting contraction include transportation equipment, fabricated metals, chemicals, plastics and rubber, wood products, textiles, furniture, petroleum and coal products, and paper. Only computer and electronic products; food, beverage and tobacco; and machinery reported growth.

The separate first-hand survey from S&P Global showed a different outcome. Its U.S. Manufacturing PMI™ for November was approximately 52, down from 52.5 in October but still above the 50-point expansion threshold. Respondents reported slower new orders, higher inventories, and softer expectations for future output, but overall conditions remained on the growth side. Methodological differences between the two surveys—particularly the composition of respondent panels and weighting—frequently cause divergence. The ISM reflects conditions among its membership base, while S&P Global collects data from a broader, weighted panel representing manufacturing sectors by economic size.

Despite political debate surrounding national trade strategy and tariffs, the White House, the Department of Commerce, and the Federal Reserve have issued no statements challenging any portion of either index. The Federal Reserve’s recent Beige Book described national manufacturing conditions as “soft,” aligning more closely with the ISM trend but without contradicting S&P Global’s findings. No federal office has suggested that either index is inaccurate.

Economists note that divergences between the two surveys generally originate from survey design rather than political influence. While the ISM survey reflects trends among established domestic manufacturers, S&P Global often captures stronger performance among export-oriented and technology-linked sectors. Both surveys remain widely used indicators of U.S. factory conditions.

Updated industrial production data from the Federal Reserve is expected in early December, offering additional clarity on whether real-world output aligns more closely with ISM’s contraction reading or S&P Global’s expansion signal.

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Primary Sources

Institute for Supply Management (ISM). “November 2025 Manufacturing PMI® Report.” ISM Official Release, November 2025.
S&P Global. “U.S. Manufacturing PMI™ — November 2025.” S&P Global Economics, November 2025.
Federal Reserve. “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (Beige Book).” Federal Reserve System, November 2025.
Federal Reserve. “Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G.17) Release Schedule.” Board of Governors, 2025.
Reuters. “US Manufacturing Slump Deepens in November.” Used for numerical cross-verification only — not treated as a first-hand source. Photo: StockSnap / CC0 License